Please see this link for a detailed analysis: Arab Media: Syria And Ukraine – Arenas Of Struggle Between Russia And U.S., West (MEMRI) – I think many may agree with Samir Al-Hijjawi, a columnist for the Qatari daily Al-Sharq, when he called on the Arabs to be aware that a solution to the Ukrainian crisis could become a blatantly Arab issue involving Syria, Iran, Russia, and the West.

At a panel discussion on Friday: A Global Ethic, Contemporary Risks and Appropriate Responses- Lessons of History. Panelists included a former International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor, a US Under Secretary of State, an Austrian Diplomat, and an Undersecretary-General of the UN.  These experts made some interesting points regarding the Middle East that I’d like to share with you:

*They pointed out that Russia’s stand on Syria is being influenced by the situation in the Ukraine. Expect a major breakthrough in aid to Syria.

*A great mistake of the US in Egypt before the revolution was strictly engaging with the government and not leaders of civil society (organizations and leaders were conveniently provided in a book published by the Egyptian government).

*The diplomat expressed the belief that in Egypt we have to be willing to live with sharia to have peace in the countryside. [See results of sharia in practice in Syria below and here.]

*They agreed that while we all want justice and peace, it’s unlikely you can have both. You have to be able to negotiate with the villains (my word) and the villains need a carrot to come to the table (i.e. not being incarcerated as a result of negotiating). “If you take a hardline on accountability, you’re unlikely to be successful.” This thought in particular was addressed to Bashar al-Assad.

*They expressed concern regarding NGO funding by unaccountable sources and how important policy decisions are being made by private actors. This reminded me of both the Citizens United decision in the US and the work of NGO Monitor.

*Diplomatic success requires never humiliating any party and plurilateralism. This particularly applied to US relations with Russia.

From Stratfor - George Friedman’s 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, The Russians will pull the Ukrainians into their alliance with Belarus and will have Russian forces all along the Polish border, and as far south as the Black Sea. This, I believe, will all take place by the mid-2010s.

Partner’s for Peace?

Report: Abbas Calls Kerry's Framework Proposal "Insanity"   (Times of Israel)

Palestinians Hurl Firebombs at Israeli Vehicles in West Bank, Two Injured - Yaakov Lappin (Jerusalem Post)

Palestinian Hate Speech Comes from Official Sources - David Pollock (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) 

Gaza Left Out of Mideast Peace Talks - William Booth and Anne Gearan (Washington Post)

For Netanyahu, a bombshell battering by Obama  - David Horovitz (Times of Israel) Netanyahu, his aides had long been indicating, was ready to accept the framework proposals — as a non-binding basis for further negotiations. So no need for confrontation there. And he must have had little hope that he was going to shift Obama’s stance on Iran, however powerful he believes his arguments to be. So not much point in confrontation there, either. But then came that bombshell battering in Bloomberg's. The timing could not have been any more deliberate — an assault on the prime minister’s policies delivered precisely as Netanyahu was flying in to meet with him, and on the first day, too, of the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC’s annual tour de force conference across town.

The President's Threats to Israel - John Podhoretz (Commentary)

Fatah Infighting Jeopardizes Kerry's Peace Process - Khaled Abu Toameh (Gatestone Institute) As Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas continues to talk with Israel and the U.S. about ways of achieving peace in the Middle East, senior members of his ruling Fatah faction have stepped up their efforts to remove him from power.

Syria

Syrian Christians 'submit' to Islam = Elhanan Miller (Times of Israel) Threatened by al-Qaeda-affiliated extremists, community in northern city of Raqqa chooses ‘dhimmitude’ over conversion or death.

Israel to UN: Syria's Atrocities Are Being Underwritten by Iran - Maya Shwayder (Jerusalem Post)

Pakistan Joins Saudi Arabia, Shuns Iran on Syria War - Walter Russell Mead  (American Interest)